Up against new waves of Russian armored vehicle maneuvers bearing down on Avdiivka, Ukrainian soldiers defending the decimated stronghold are tired but determined.
"The situation is tense but under control," Captain Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces, which is covering Avdiivka, told Newsweek. "We are ready for new challenges."
More than four months into the Russian onslaught on Avdiivka, a strategic industrial town located northwest of the Russian-controlled regional capital, Donetsk City, Russia is upping the ante.
Moscow is "increasingly adding armored groups to assault infantry groups" around Avdiivka, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria forces, said Sunday.
Other senior Ukrainian figures agree. "I can confirm that the Russian army began to use armored vehicles more often for offensive actions on Avdiivka," Lykhovii said.
So far, Russia has been using small groups of up to two tanks to back up its infantry forces, Lykhovii added. "But we expect that the enemy will continue to use tanks more massively—along with increasing offensive actions."
Russia has been redirecting resources into its offensive push against Avdiivka since October 10, turning the heavily fortified Ukrainian town into a "meat grinder," a term used to describe prolonged battles that rack up high casualty counts and absorb significant resources. Avdiivka is a prize—for Russia, it holds real symbolic as well as strategic value. For Ukraine, losing it could further dent deflated morale after a disappointing summer and fall counteroffensive at a time of deepening anxiety over the future of military aid from the U.S.
The town has weathered a decade on the front lines, with Ukraine preparing its defenses throughout the years of clashes in eastern Ukraine. The time Ukraine has spent building up its fortifications complicated Moscow's attempts to take the town with infantry-led attacks—a core Kremlin tactic in recent months.
In the initial weeks of the onslaught, Russia lost a number of its armored vehicles. Moscow's forces then switched to infantry-led attacks around Avdiivka to "conserve armored vehicles following the first two waves of assaults on the settlement," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, said in mid-December.
It makes sense for Russia to use mechanized infantry in Avdiivka because of Ukraine's extensive fortifications, said Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in the War Studies Department at King's College London. It is also in Moscow's interest to protect its flanks with armored vehicles and tanks, she told Newsweek.
For now, Ukraine is holding Avdiivka. Western analysts, looking at Ukraine's meticulous fortifications, were confident of Kyiv's grip on the town in the first stages of Russia's offensive, but as the months have worn on, this conviction has become diluted. Albeit at an eye-watering cost, Russia has consistently advanced around the outskirts of Avdiivka, the town now warping an otherwise smooth front line of Russian-occupied territory in the area.
Ukraine's lifeline is that it has kept its main supply route open. The 00542 highway, which runs into Avdiivka from the west of the town from nearby Orlivka, is vital for keeping Ukraine's forces sustained.
Russia is working to cut off this road and the resources it allows Ukraine to funnel into its defense of the town, Miron said. At the same time, Moscow is working to cut the Ukrainian contingent there in half, she said.
As long as the main supply route remains intact and Ukraine can continue its local counterattacks on Russian forces, "Avdiivka is likely to remain in Ukrainian control," the U.K. Defense Ministry assessed in late January. Without this supply route, the outlook is bleak.
And Russia is gaining ground. Lykhovii told Ukrainian media over the weekend that Russia was focusing on Ukraine's supply artery, conceding that Moscow was now attacking Ukrainian forces in buildings in Avdiivka and focusing on the town's northern part.
On Sunday, Russian fighters made confirmed advances in the north of Avdiivka, as well as to the southwest, the ISW said in its latest assessment.
Russia will likely continue using drones and aerial bombs to back up its ground efforts, Miron predicted.
Russian jets approaching Avdiivka have been forced to strike at Ukrainian positions from range, hindered by Ukrainian air defense endangering the aircraft. This has reduced the accuracy of aerial strikes, the U.K. government assessed last week, but has still inflicted destruction on Avdiivka.
"This way, the Russians can maintain the pressure on the Ukrainian forces," Miron said.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Ellie Cook is a Newsweek security and defense reporter based in London, U.K. Her work focuses largely on the Russia-Ukraine ... Read more
