Whether by tradition or happenstance, the opinions the United States Supreme Court hands down on the last day or two of each term are the ones most likely to be portrayed as disruptive. That's certainly true of the Court's last decisions in 2023. Even the most controversial of them, however, pales in comparison to the impact of the 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which overturned its 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade.
Conspicuously, the pro-life movement let the anniversary of its victory pass without major celebration. Essays were written and op-eds published but without the sense of triumphalism that might be expected from the apparent victors in a half-century-long struggle. That may be because many of the movement's most important leaders and thinkers understand Dobbs is a weigh station, a jumping-off point to the next phase of the campaign.
Before Dobbs, things were largely frozen in place by Roe. The law governing abortion changed—in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services, in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, in legislation on partial-birth abortion—but at a glacial pace and only after receiving the stamp of approval of a majority on the High Court.
The pro-life movement, its leaders will tell you candidly, was not unprepared for Roe to be overturned and for the responsibility for abortion laws to be handed back to Congress and the state legislatures. It was the politicians, they say, who were not ready for Dobbs.
That's a credible assessment, given the way most candidates for office shied away from controversy until the Trump style of politics made so many run toward it like first responders at a fire. And, on the fringes, little has changed. According to a recent poll by RMG Research Inc., most voters still reject extreme positions on both sides of the issue.
Just 5 percent of voters back abortion laws that reject "all exceptions including rape, incest, and risk to the life of the mother." On the other side, the same percentage of voters reject "all restrictions, including notifying the father, notifying the parents of a teenager, and waiting periods."
That leaves 90 percent of voters in the middle, making it imperative for each side to try to develop a majoritarian consensus before the other does. That means those who will never accept any compromise have to be marginalized because smart politicos realize that, even if you can govern as an extremist, you can't campaign as one.
The obvious pivot, the one necessary to win enough new adherents for the pro-life side to prevail, is to focus on policies that are supported by many if not most voters in many if not most states.
These include requiring a three-day waiting period, which the RMG survey indicates is backed by 65 percent of voters; providing resources for women facing unplanned pregnancies such as counseling, material aid (diapers, formula, car seats), and even housing, backed by 70 percent of voters; and promulgating regulations mandating that abortion clinics meet health and medical standards applied to other health care facilities, which has 83 percent support.
It's on these issues—rather than defending a blanket ban on abortion—where the pro-life movement and the GOP can recover ground lost in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin after Dobbs and before the 2024 election. Those still trying to formulate their positions should remember that pro-life governors who had invested in the issue, signed strong bills, and had successes to point to did well in 2022. Several, including Iowa's Kim Reynolds and Florida's Ron DeSantis, saw their states become more rather than less Republican.
The other main challenge is to overcome the aversion to the issue exhibited by the GOP establishment. The Republicans need to abandon consultants who urge their candidates to talk about abortion only when "absolutely necessary" in favor of those who know how to develop a well-thought-out, logically consistent, appealing message they can talk about to voters comfortably.
This shouldn't be a fear-inducing prospect. A Harvard-Harris poll found 72 percent of voters would limit abortions to no later than 15 weeks, including 75 percent of women, 70 percent of Independents, and 60 percent of Democrats. There's plenty of room to construct a consensus if the leaders of the pro-life movement can persuade the rank and file of the need to establish one.
Newsweek Contributing Editor Peter Roff has written about U.S. politics and policy for more than 20 years. He is now a fellow at several public policy organizations including the Trans-Atlantic Leadership Network. Email him at RoffColumns@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter and TruthSocial @TheRoffDraft
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
