When we woke up this morning, and the post-Super Tuesday political hangover began to lift, one thing was inescapable: former President Donald Trump is the Republican presumptive nominee to become the next president of the United States.
The term "presumptive nominee" is one that's going to be thrown around A LOT today, this week, and for the next few months. In United States presidential elections, "presumptive nominee" refers to a candidate who is assumed to be their party's nominee but has not yet been formally nominated or elected by their political party at the party's nominating convention. This term gained popularity as a significant change in campaign language, shifting from "front-runner" to "presumptive nominee."
Typically, a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee when their last serious challenger drops out or when they mathematically secure a majority of delegates before the convention. The usage of this term varies from election to election, with news organizations adopting it at different times. The shift in media usage reflects the evolution of the nomination process, where candidates are often known well before the conventions due to primary and caucus results.
Even more granularly, in January, The Associated Press outlined their specific criteria for using the term, stating that they only refer to a candidate as the presumptive nominee once they have secured the number of delegates required to win a majority vote at the national party conventions.
So. In 2024 how presumptive is presumptive?
This is going to be a fun sandbox for language geeks such as me to play in for the next few months.
How is a "presumption" defined?
A "presumption" is defined as an attitude or belief dictated by probability, an assumption, or a legal inference drawn from known or proved facts. Yet in legal terms, a presumption is a legal inference that must be made based on certain facts.
Most presumptions are rebuttable, meaning they can be challenged with evidence. Some presumptions are conclusive, meaning they must be accepted as true without the opportunity for rebuttal. Conclusive presumptions can pose constitutional issues if they shift the burden of persuasion to the defendant. In general language usage, a presumption is something accepted as true but not certain to be true, often based on reasonable evidence or probability.
Are we there today?
As law professor and legal analyst Megan F. Chaney reminds us, "In 2024, there are numerous legal uncertainties not just about the outcomes of several cases, but also about how long it will take to resolve them before the November election. These uncertainties challenge the traditional concept of a presumptive nominee."
In other words, this is probably not the best time to presume anything.
Last week in The Atlantic, David A. Graham brilliantly summarized the totality of Trump's legal issues which could, individually or collectively turn the presumption of his ascending to the podium at the RNC convention in Milwaukee in July into disqualification.
From fraud, hush money payments, election subversion allegations, and documents related to Mar-a-Lago, are part of an historical record previously unseen and unimagined in the United States. As Graham himself phrased it:
Not long ago, the idea that a former president—or a major-party presidential nominee—would face serious legal jeopardy was nearly unthinkable. Today, merely keeping track of the many cases against Donald Trump requires a law degree, a great deal of attention, or both.
The list is currently at 91 felony counts. Viewed through the lens of a normal person, this prospect of prison and around a half a billion dollars of financial liability, would be personally and, of course, professionally overwhelming. As these legal battles are ongoing, it honestly takes a daily suspension of disbelief that a person with this kind of risk window is even able to get out of bed.
But he does every day. And each day, all of the evidence we have points at Donald Trump moving closer to becoming the actual, not presumptive, Republican nominee to be the next president.
At some point, a presumption transitions into reality.
Again, from a legal perspective, this happens when something is recognized and accepted as true without the need for further evidence.
When a presumption is invoked within the framework of established legal rules and procedures, it transforms from a mere assumption into a recognized reality, which is where the most realistic among us find ourselves today.
So, as we leave Super Tuesday behind us, we see something quickly catch up to, then pass us. It's the reality of a re-do of the 2020 election. A very different incarnation, set in a remarkably different time. But what we are beginning to definitively sense today is that any notion that things wouldn't play out this way is an historic illusion, something quickly and best left behind.
About Aron Solomon
A Pulitzer Prize-nominated writer, Aron Solomon, JD, is the chief strategy officer forAmplify. He has taught entrepreneurship at McGill University and the University of Pennsylvania, and was elected to Fastcase 50, recognizing the top 50 legal innovators in the world. Aron has been featured in Newsweek, Fast Company, Fortune, Forbes, CBS News, CNBC, USA Today, ESPN, Abogados, Today's Esquire, TechCrunch, The Hill, BuzzFeed, Venture Beat, The Independent, Fortune China, Yahoo!, ABA Journal,Law.com,The Boston Globe, and many other leading publications across the globe.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
