Nikki Haley's Path to Beating Donald Trump

The GOP presidential primary field continues to shrink, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley's campaign continues to gain traction. But can she find a path to beat former President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination?

Haley has drummed up support for her White House bid in recent weeks, emerging as a steady second to Trump in critical polls, earning a coveted endorsement from the Koch network and attracting a swath of new voters to her campaign.

On Wednesday night, she will take her place on the smallest debate stage so far and face off against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie in Alabama. Trump, the GOP frontrunner, also qualified for the event in Tuscaloosa but will skip the event as he has for the previous three debates.

Haley has done particularly well next to her fellow Republicans, routinely seeing a surge in support after her debate performances. Her biggest challenge, however, remains the candidate who has refused to participate. Trump has maintained his 45-point advantage over the rest of the field in national polls and leads by over 25 points in most battleground states.

Despite Trump's massive lead, Haley still has a chance at winning the nomination because the two are tied in delegate count, Republican strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek.

"As they say, 'that's why we play the game,'" Klink said.

Delegates are pivotal in determining the party's nominee in the Republican primaries. Each state is allocated a certain number of delegates based on its Republican voting history and population, and delegates are either awarded to candidates proportionally, by percentage of the vote in the state, or on a winner-takes-all basis, in which the single, most popular candidate will clinch all the delegates. Because the system varies by state, the GOP primaries are often a dynamic and unpredictable race.

Experts told Newsweek that to demonstrate that she has the momentum and is the only viable Republican candidate to challenge Trump, Haley will need strong performances in the three critical primary states—Iowa, New Hampshire, and her home state, South Carolina.

Iowa will be the first state to vote, with its caucus gathering in just six weeks on January 15, followed by New Hampshire, which is hosting its primary on January 23. South Carolina's GOP primary will be held on February 24. Iowa and New Hampshire will award their respective 40 and 22 delegates proportionally.

South Carolina takes a mixed approach in allocating its 50 delegates, but most of them—the 29 at-large delegates—will be awarded to the candidate with the highest statewide vote total. Its 21 district delegates will be awarded based on vote totals in each congressional district.

"If she finished second in each, she can make the case that other GOP presidential aspirants should drop out early (now) so she can go head-to-head with Donald Trump," Klink said.

Poll averages from FiveThirtyEight show that Trump holds majority support in all three states, with 44 percent in Iowa and New Hampshire and 50 percent in South Carolina. Haley comes third in the Hawkeye State at 15 percent, trailing DeSantis' 27 percent, but is the clear second in New Hampshire, where she holds nearly 19 percent support, and South Carolina with almost 21 percent.

"The political landscape depends on how Iowa and New Hampshire play out," Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop Poll Initiative in South Carolina, told Newsweek.

If Haley pulls off a better-than-expected showing in Iowa, and DeSantis does worse than expected, she could consolidate some of the anti-Trump vote, Huffmon said. And although he doesn't expect Haley to win in New Hampshire, Huffmon noted that she typically does better among independent voters, who "are more likely to show up there."

Ultimately, Haley's fate will be chalked up to her performance at home, which will not be an easy victory.

Political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek that the race will likely come down to Haley and Trump after New Hampshire but that it would be impossible to predict anything at that point since Haley would then need to defeat Trump in South Carolina—a challenge Townsend called "a big if."

The Winthrop Poll released in November shows that Trump retains most Republican support in South Carolina, with 52 percent of GOP voters backing the former president. Haley garnered 17 percent support to DeSantis' 12 percent, but the poll was conducted before South Carolina Senator Tim Scott dropped out of the race.

Scott's support in the Winthrop Poll had surged from 6 percent in October to 10 percent last month.

Huffmon said Scott's decision to bow out likely means that Haley could take a good number of his supporters, especially those attracted to South Carolina politicians. However, Haley probably wouldn't "get all of Tim's supporters, and even if she got all of his voters, she would still be in a very distant position" from beating Trump, who holds enormous influence in her home state.

"The South Carolina Republican party has become a majority Trump Party. Even former mainstream Republicans are pro-Trump," Huffmon said. "It's not necessarily his policy preferences other than their support for him as a person. There's no 'magic bullet' for [Haley] to win over Trump supporters. It has to be shaved off, bit by bit."

The evangelical vote will also be crucial in South Carolina. Evangelicals make up the largest religious group in the state, accounting for 35 percent of the population, data from Pew Research shows. Nearly 60 percent of South Carolina evangelicals identify as Republican. But those voters have already "lined up so strongly behind Trump," so Haley can't depend on swaying the entire electorate to her campaign. Instead, she will need a coalition of voters to succeed at home.

"There's no single group that will allow her to beat Trump on her own," Huffmon said.

Huffmon added that Haley has benefited from her debate performances, which indicates that she's standing out from the rest of the GOP crowd. Trump's absences, however, leave a lot of uncertainty about how the two would fare head-to-head.

"[Haley] is great in debates, but how is she doing against the specter in the room who's not there?" Huffmon asked. "I would love to see Nikki Haley debate Donald Trump. She's quick-witted and can be sharp-tongued, but she's highly political and knows not to insult the base."

Klink said if it ends up being Haley and Trump on the debate stage, "it's anyone's race."

"Donald Trump can act like he has the nomination all sewn up," Klink said. "Until he doesn't."