Avdiivka Is About to Fall

Russian troops are making gains towards Avdiivka, posing a "critical" situation for Kyiv's forces, Ukrainian Telegram channels have warned, amid the prospect the Donetsk town could be the first settlement captured by Moscow in eight months.

Last October, Russia launched an offensive for the settlement considered to be a gateway to nearby Russian-occupied Donetsk city and pivotal in the Kremlin's objective to gain control of the entire southeastern Donbas region.

Russia has suffered huge losses of equipment and troops in what has been described by Kyiv as "meat assaults," but Ukrainian Telegram channels have been giving pessimistic assessments on the chances that Kyiv's forces could manage to hold onto the town.

The Telegram channel Ukraine Fights posted on Sunday that "the situation in the city has become critical," adding that Russian attack aircraft had entered the city from the northeast and Russian troops had bypassed Ukrainian battle formations and gained a foothold in the buildings.

"This means that they are hundreds of meters away from the main logistical artery of the Ukrainian defenders," the post said, according to a translation. "The fate of Avdiivka is being decided."

Telegram channel Butusov Plus said there were street battles in the northern outskirts of Avdiivka where Russian units had entrenched themselves less than a mile from the entrance to the town. Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade and attached units are fighting larger Russian troop numbers, which are constantly being reinforced.

"Avdiivka urgently needs fresh reserves and a rotation of units from the heroic 110th Brigade," the post said, noting that ammunition is also needed, adding that "the situation is critical."

Newsweek reached out to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment.

Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov referred to the posts on X, formerly Twitter, writing on Sunday that Avdiivka "increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May."

He added that the acute ammunition shortage has been caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine.

Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, said that the Russian capture of Avdiivka could strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine.

It would also enable Russian forces to consolidate positions around Bakhmut, facilitate their control of the highway between Donetsk and Kramatorsk, and overall enhance Moscow's logistical capabilities in Donetsk.

"The loss of Avdiivka would limit Ukraine's ability to launch counteroffensive operations against Russia in Donbas, and reclaiming the city, given its formidable fortifications, would pose an exceptionally challenging task," Hartwell told Newsweek.

"Russia has invested heavily in the capture of Avdiivka, deploying scores of soldiers and military equipment to the city," he said. "The seizure of Avdiivka holds significant political importance for Putin, driven by the urgent need to showcase victories for Russia ahead of the presidential election and a potential new wave of mass mobilization of soldiers."

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Sunday that Russian forces had advanced east of Avdiivka with geolocated footage from the previous day showing advances along the H-20 highway east of the town.

Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the War on the Rocks podcast on January 30 that the situation around Avdiivka was "stable" but "trending for the worse in the sense that Russians are making incremental gains."

"There is a good chance that Avdiivka will eventually be lost," Kofman said.

Čedomir Nestorović, a professor of geopolitics and Islamic business at ESSEC Business School in Singapore, said the drop in funding, ammunition, and weapons for Kyiv, as well as problems it had in mobilization, meant "there is a great risk that Avdiivka will fall soon.

"Putin does not seem to have these problems, so the likelihood is high," he told Newsweek, adding that President Volodymyr Zelensky had wanted to defend Avdiivka "whatever the cost" unlike his commander-in-chief, Valerii Zaluzhny.

"If Avdiivka falls, this will change the rivalry between the President and the army chief—to the latter's benefit," he said.

Update 02/06/24, 10:11 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Čedomir Nestorović.